Thursday, January 17, 2008

Failed Tonto Trade – MLNM (Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc)





Failed trade. Although the trade did not trigger, I am putting it down in my spreadsheet as a failed trade because the concept was wrong all around.
1. I started the trading day with the preconceived idea that MLNM will go up. This is plainly wrong since the most valuable asset I have as a trader is my ability to read the market signs to make “objective” decisions. A preconceived idea is the wrong way to start the day.
2. I am mostly comfortable with the 15mins charts, but I was so sure the stock would move up that I only was looking at the 5 min chart. My entry in the 5 min chart is not good, but it makes even less sense in the 15 min chart.
3. Entry was not a valid bull entry candle in fact the candle had a long upper shadow.
4. Market was choppy and realistically MLNM was not presenting any dummy (low risk) entries.
5. In the 15 min chart, the stock was very weak at the trigger time. In fact, after swinging to the ORL, the MLNM was not even able to close above the 50% Fib line (not drawn in the chart).
6. Volume patter was hard to read.
All in all it was simply a bad trade.

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