Friday, April 11, 2008

Tonto Trade - AMGN

Although I manage most of my trades with the 15min chart, the 5min chart is becoming very important to me in establishing how well a stock might move on a given day. I noticed that when the candlesticks in the 5min chart have long wicks, cross the EMAs back and forth, and print a lot of zig-zag motions, they are less likely to move steadily in one direction throughout the day, which is what I am interested in. My job during the first 30-60min of the session is to identify stocks that are likely to move well and follow through, and in that regard the 5min chart is proving to be a very nice tool.
This AMGN trade was not a big winner, but I like how the candlesticks make a very steady declining motion, price never crosses the 20EMA (which is like the 5EMA in the 15min chart), and how most candlesticks do not print long shadows. When I looked at the AMGN greater picture (15min and daily charts) I could see a lot of factors pointing me to not taking the trade, but I did it primarily based on the positive indications of the AMGN 5min chart.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

I did the same trade, but I got scared out after the larger green bar at S1, glad to see that someone got the full move though. I think part of what got me was the down-up-up-up-down nature of the stock movement on the 5m.

anarco said...

You did the right thing chartguy. S1 was also the ORL of the previous day and also and important PP, so there was a lot of reason to be concerned at that point. I was feeling a little bit overly confident about the beauty of this chart :-)

Anonymous said...

Is that a typo on the charts? It says partial at $30 and exit at $30 but it really is $43.

bl said...

I can read the 15 better -2,7/15 look good. Do you trade primarily off a WL or gappers? Looking at KBE(bank etf) the opening 6 bar 15" rally finally reversed. LEH COF financials would have made good shorts! 2 pts or so

anarco said...

@anon: yup there is a typo on the chart, I miss typed it. Sorry about that.

bl@ I work with both a gapper list and a WL. COF would have made a beautiful reversal but was not on my list :-(

bl said...

.coWhen a see a 250 pt down day and not alot of good gap shorts it really makes me think to have a WL, esp of financials. GE barely made a 1 pt move from a -4/15 break which a cancelled btw. Oh well.