Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Tonto Trade - GRMN


GRMN printed a nice, solid red candle and immediately tested the 25% fib extension (drawn from the previous day high to the ORL). Then it pulled back to the test the ORL and printed 2 great NRIBs with declining volume. All of the bars closed below the down sloping 5EMA. I entered on the low of the 3rd IB candle. Price moved my way and I took a partial at the 38% fib extension. Price kept moving down, but before hitting the 50% fib extension, it move back quite abruptly printing a quite bullish hammer-like candle. I was concerned about the long leg of that candle and was even more concerned by the next candle, which was also very bullish. I placed my stop just a few ticks above S2 and it was hit right away. Unfortunately, after hitting my stop the stock did nothing but drop. Very sad indeed. My exit would have been at $46.00.

9 comments:

OONR7 said...

you killed that entry on a beautiful bear flag right below the ORL (just look at those higher lows). How are you gathering your candidates? Percentage gainers/losers or Jamie's watchlist? Great trade. Don't sweat the exit as you played it correctly. Maybe a partial would've worked but in today's market you need to book profits when you can.

anarco said...

oonr7~
Yes, I started my WL using Jamie's WL, but I removed and added a few since then so I am not sure how that compares to his list. My current WL is:
AAPL, ABX, ACI, AKAM, ALXN, AMAT, AMGN, AMZN, ANR, BAX, BDX, CELG, CNQ, CPHD, CREE, CROX, CSIQ, DO, DPTR, DRYS, ESRX, FAST, FMCN, FWLT, GRMN, HANS, ILMN, IMCL, JASO, JOYG, LDK, LEH, LRCX, MS, NVDA, PAYX, PBR, POT, RIMM, RMBS, SIGM, SLB, TBSI, TNH, V, WM.
I also use the gaper list from Jamie in the morning and other stocks I gathered by reading through the pre-market news. I keep the gapper list separate and I keep some of the stocks from the previous days if I feel they have nice charts or nice potential.
Cheers

Anonymous said...

Nice trade. I also like how the 7th bar is also NR7. Yummy.

Anonymous said...

Nice trade. Caught the exact same one as well. GME provided a similar setup around the same time which worked out well.

anarco said...

Thanks Anon and Alex!

bl said...

Nice work! Speaking of news: how about AMR and the rest of the group. Big drop! I read Market Watch and 24/7 and thought for sure BA would drop. With all the delays and maybe less orders it gaps up!!. MTL what a mover.

anarco said...

Thanks BL!
You know, I have not had much luck lately with the airlines group. A few months ago it seemed like their moves were tied to the oil prices. These days I cannot figure them out...

bl said...

AMR flight cancellation and more Thrs. These gus are hurtin'

TJ said...

Hey Anarco, Good job!

I knew GRMN was going to break lower today because yesterday's trading range kept getting narrower and narrower as the day wore on.