Tuesday, October 28, 2008

October 28 - SKF


This was one of the best trades of my life :-)

The logic for entering this trade is as follows:
1. Price rallies to point A
2. At point B price retraces below R1 and below the 5EMA. That in itself is bearish, but it was early to tell since at this point SKF could form a C&H pattern
3. Price tries to rallies but it fails to move above the previous day high (point C). Bearish.
4. Price retraces again to point D, which is lower than point B. I have to say here that I entered short on the break of the 13:05 bar, but I got stopped out at break even a few bars later. Bearish.
5. Again price tries to rally but it stops below R1: Bearish. Another interesting point here is that the line from D to E is pretty straight and it resembles a bear flag, but the angle is a bit too vertical and also the volume does not seem to confirm that since in fact we have ascending volume, instead of descending volume.
6. All the above describes a situation in which you have lower highs and lower lows. I entered on the break of the 14:05 bar.
The Q's and the financials were exploding so I was quite aggressive (more than I normally am) with my partial and exit points.

9 comments:

Prospectus said...

Please tell me you had 1000 shares!

Outstanding trade. You win at the markets today. :)

anarco said...

Yes, it was a good day. I know a number of traders that did well today!
Did you manage to catch the move?

Anonymous said...

Congrats Anarco!

Perhaps there is some additional leverage associated with some of these ETFs that I do not fully understand. Percentage wise, SKF moved 2x or more as compared to broader market indexes. Is there some additional leverage associated with the Ultrashort ETFs? Enlighten me.

anarco said...

Hey Jim~
I wish I could enlighten you about why the ETFs move more (percentage wise) than other indexes or even other stocks. I have been observing this and find it quite interesting.
The curious thing is that there is a big difference across ETFs. For example, if we take the move from 2pm to 4pm today, we have:
- SKF moved from 175 to 140 (approx 20%)
- SRS moved from 190 to 135 (approx 30%)
- The NASDAQ index moved from 1525 to 1650 (less than 10%)
- A stock like AAPL moved from 93 to 100 (approx 7%)
I think the reward of trading some of these ETFs is great, but so is the risk. SKF, SRS, QID, and TWM (the ones I have been following) seem to be quite liquid so it is not a big deal to get in an out, but they move fast, fast.
I miss you posts man!!! ;-)
Cheers,

Anonymous said...

leveraged 2x ETFs are good for swinging (hopefully at pivots) on counter-ternd moves... you dont have the company risk of getting hammered into oblivion. less likely on intrad-day stuff.

look at the move DIG has/is making.

ANARCO - you still working? got really busy this month, but work is getting old.

QQQBall

Anonymous said...

Anarco,

Thanks for your ETF thoughts. I am still trading. In the evenings I have been working a house remodeling project, so not much time for posting. Hopefully the project will wrap up around Thanksgiving and I will have more time.

I do make time to follow Jamie and Trader-X. They are both posting great material!

anarco said...

Hi QQQBall!
Long time no see.
Yeahh... I am still working and hoping I could retire soon (although it is probably far out).
Thanks for the DIG tip, I'll keep an eye on it.
Cheers,

anarco said...

Hey Jim,
I am glad you are still trading.
Yes, I also read Trader X and Jamie's post regularly. They are both very useful to my trading.
Cheers,

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