The hardest thing about the Q’s trade was the psychological struggle of seeing the market going up (after the initial move down) knowing that the unemployment data was the worst in over 30 years and thinking all the time that the market should be really going down. Anyway, I was able to get over that and traded the chart. And that was really a success in itself.
The rationale for the trade is simple. An initial thrust down and a steady climb up hat makes higher highs and higher lows. Finally, price breaks above PDL, retraces back to the trend line, steps up above the PDL and prints two IBs, with my trigger bar being a NRIB. I exited at $28 considering the RZ, the 50EMA and 5DMA (in the 15min chart). Anyway, price sliced through that area. And, as it usually happens, I felt like a fool for not riding it all the way. But hey, nobody wins them all.
BTU broke down below PDL and at 11:00am started climbing up slowly, but steadily. The two sets of offsetting bars (point A and B) told me that buyers were in control of the action. Just before 2pm BTU makes a decisive move above PDL and then it retraces to test the trend line, and it proceeds to form a small base. I set my buy-stop order a few cents above the top of the base and my protective loss-stop at PDL.
UAUA did not work out. I saw a picture perfect bull flag and I entered on the break of that flag. But I was shook out because price came back to test PDH. I exited because I thought the whole thing was a head fake (especially when I saw that full body, WR red candle at 12:30) , but UAUA ended up making a very nice move to the 38% fib extension (without me).
If you know or have any theories about this failure, please let me know.
9 comments:
Anarco,
Nice trades. I have noticed that trades seem to work better when they break out above a fib level and then come back to support and form some type of confirmation candle. But I have not really tested that after pattern breakouts.
Also, I think the PDH is an area instead of a specific point because there is going to be a lot of buyers and sellers, so it may be hard to place a stop under it.
The indices met some resistance from Wednesday right when your UAUA trade fell. I have been trying to keep an eye on my stocks and the market at the same time.
Tyler
About your QQQQ trade - I had the same situation in YM today. I left a lot on the table.
But you're right - the most important thing was that you traded with a plan and you stuck to it. Consistency is key.
Good job.
-AT
It was a difficult day as the final action did follow the logic with the terrible jobs report. Good job getting a couple winners out of the confusing day.
no fool on that Qs exit - volume spike to boot and you're out ... clean trade.
QBz
BTU... i got wh*mmed so hard on BTU yesterday & stopped out on PCX, that i swore off coal this morning.
i have 16.63 to 16.64 as Trader X 1.382 extenson base dupon the numbers on your chart.
QBz
What do you mean by offsetting bars? What is the importance of these bars?
Anarco, as you mentioned the other day UAUA still showed some pretty good price action. Notice how it broke out of the formation on increasing volume and pulled back on much lower volume.
Basically someone with a lot of money was buying shares of UAUA at the break out point, thus they were likely to continue to do so and the stock had at least 1 more push higher.
Hope that helps.
Anarco,
The answer to your question re:UAUA trade is: should have set your stop just under the 34EMA(Fib)
on 5-min...(lesson learned from a VERY successful Pit Trader is that trend changes occur on BIG-BAR breaks of the 34EMA w/ VOLUME)Note how the (34) HELD on the PB!!
Michael
Thank you all for the feedback!
Cheers,
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